Product Dossier  ·  v30.5.4

Verified math.
Not asserted.

Every build of the VRP Quant terminal runs a deterministic proof suite in public continuous integration. The report it produces is published on this site, naming the engine version it certifies and the commit it was generated from. If the mathematics breaks, the build goes red and it does not ship.

Verification
Pass
Checks
22 / 22
Version
v30.5.4
Report
published
Product Description

A variance risk premium research terminal that shows its working.

Two modules. The Scanner ranks a universe on volatility-regime and premium-richness criteria. Deep Dive takes one name and prices a structure three independent ways, then shows you how far the three disagree.

What it does not do is hand you a trade and hide the derivation. Every strike is traceable to a stated basis, every volatility figure to a stated estimator, every price to a stated model, and every data point to the source that actually served it.

Architecture

Every ticker runs the same pipeline. No shortcuts, no exceptions.

Six-source data waterfall

Alpha Vantage, Google Finance, Polygon, yfinance, FRED and NewsAPI, each with per-request health reporting. Source indicators reflect the outcome of the actual request, never merely that a key is configured. A throttled reply that arrives dressed as a success is caught and marked as a fallthrough.

Gap-aware volatility

Yang-Zhang realised volatility over a fixed window, so overnight gaps are measured instead of ignored. Close-to-close estimators treat a gap as though it never happened, which is exactly backwards for anyone short premium.

Three independent pricing paths

Black-Scholes closed form, a 200-step Cox-Ross-Rubinstein lattice covering European and American exercise, and Monte Carlo across five to fifty thousand paths with optional Merton jump diffusion. The lattice reports its own error against the closed-form price on screen.

Strike selection you control

Delta-selected strikes solve numerically for the strike carrying that delta. Sigma bands are drift-corrected lognormal quantiles. They are related and not equal, and the terminal keeps them as separate choices rather than quietly conflating them.

Live discount rate

Discounting uses the current three-month Treasury yield pulled from FRED and dated on screen, not a hardcoded constant left over from whenever the file was written.

Build traceability

The terminal displays its version in the sidebar and the report names the version it certifies. Where the two agree, the software in front of you is the software that was proven. The commit hash lives on the report, where an auditor needs it, rather than cluttering a screen you look at every day.

Source health, as capturedone scan · build 8ee972f
01Alpha Vantage · quoteserved
02Alpha Vantage · historyfell through
03Google Finance · quotenot needed
04Polygon · quotenot needed
05Polygon · historyserved
06yfinance · historyserved
Amber on rung 02 is the free-tier limit being hit and the waterfall moving down to Polygon. The terminal reports the outcome of the request, not whether a key is configured — a throttled reply arrives as a success and is caught rather than trusted.
Live Output  ·  build 8ee972f

Unedited captures from the running terminal.

These are screenshots of the deployed application, not illustrations of it.

One scan session, ranked by premium richnesscustom watchlist · 4 of 4 returned
AMD+26.6% edge73.4% volMETA+11.4% edge49.0% volTSLA+7.7% edge45.8% volNVDA+2.2% edge37.8% vol
Scanner VRP edge is a proxy — VIX scaled to each name's own volatility regime, not its traded implied volatility. The terminal labels it as a proxy in the table footnote and sends you to Deep Dive for the measured figure. A richer proxy on a higher-volatility name is not automatically a better trade.
Plate 01Institutional Market Scanner
Market scanner output: a ranked table of four tickers showing alpha score, trend, VRP edge, volatility, expected move, volatility-target weight, and fifty-day support and resistance.
Screen a sector, the APEX-100 or your own watchlist. Each name returns an alpha score, trend classification, VRP edge, annualised volatility, thirty-day expected move, volatility-target weight, and fifty-day support and resistance. The sidebar shows which source served each request. The footnote under the table marks the scanner's VRP figure as a proxy rather than a measurement, because that is what it is.
Expected move cone, TSLA 30 DTEσ 45.8% · drift-corrected lognormal
+2σ 472.66+1σ 414.50spot 365.44−1σ 318.77−2σ 279.54today15d30dbands widen with √t, not linearly with t
Drift-corrected lognormal quantiles, not the uncorrected S·exp(±σ√T) shortcut. The asymmetry between the upper and lower band is the Ito term doing its work: in log space the bands are symmetric, in price space they are not.
Plate 02Strike basis selection
Deep Dive strike basis selector offering sixteen-delta and thirty-delta solved strikes, one-sigma and half-sigma bands, at-the-money, and the fifty-day low.
Six bases, and the distinction between them is real. On a name running forty-five percent volatility, the one-sigma band is closer to a thirteen-delta strike than a sixteen. Software that labels them as the same thing is wrong by three delta points and does not tell you. Whichever basis you pick propagates into every Greek, tree price and simulation below it.
Plate 03Deep Dive & Trade Architect
Deep Dive output: sixteen and twenty-five delta selected strikes on both wings, the full Black-Scholes Greek set, and CRR European versus American pricing with early-exercise premium and convergence error.
Delta-selected strikes on both wings, the full Greek set including rho, and a convergence panel reporting the European tree price, the American price, the early-exercise premium, and the lattice's error against closed form. That error is displayed rather than suppressed. You are watching the model audit itself in real time.
Monte Carlo terminal distribution50,000 paths · 30 DTE · σ 45.8%
short strike 327.9021.4% of pathsfinish below the strike78.6%expire above it200280360440520terminal price · 50,000 simulated paths
The shaded fraction is the modelled probability of finishing in the money — 21.4% here. That is not the same number as the strike's delta, and software that presents them as interchangeable is wrong by several points. Both are shown in the terminal, separately.
BS price
$3.8890
Delta
-0.1601
Gamma
0.00557
Theta / day
-$0.1703
Vega / 1%
$0.2550
Rho / 1%
-$0.0513
CRR European
$3.8887
CRR American
$3.9014
Early exercise
$0.0127
Tree vs BS
0.008%
Where the risk actually sitsput delta and gamma across strikes
short strikedeltagamma280320360400440strike · spot 365.44 · 30 DTE
Gamma peaks near the money and collapses toward the wings, which is why a short strike far from spot is cheap to hold until it isn't. The dashed line is the 16Δ strike: low delta, and low gamma — until price migrates toward it.
Delta-selected strikes, TSLA at 30 DTEspot 365.44 · vol 45.8% · build 8ee972f
spot 365.44327.9016Δ put-10.3%340.6725Δ put-6.8%400.2725Δ call+9.5%415.8816Δ call+13.8%
Each strike is solved numerically for its delta rather than read off a chart level. The asymmetry between the put and call wings is the volatility skew of the underlying, not a modelling artefact.
Cushion scales with the square root of time16Δ put · vol 45.8%
14 DTE-8.03%21 DTE-9.60%30 DTE-11.19%45 DTE-13.24%60 DTE-14.86%
At a fixed delta, strike distance from spot grows roughly with √T. Doubling the tenor from 30 to 60 days buys about a third more distance, not twice as much. The terminal computes this rather than approximating it.
Verification

Proof that runs in public on every commit.

No market data, no API keys, no network. Each check is a closed-form identity or a convergence property — true or false independently of any market view. The suite exits non-zero on failure, so a passing run cannot be a silent one.

Property testedResult
Put-call parity across dividend yieldsHolds
Dividend yield applied exactly onceExact
CRR European convergence to Black-Scholes0.003% @ 200
American ≥ European, early exercise non-negativeHolds
One-sigma bands vs true lognormal quantileExact
One-sigma breach probability vs theory15.87 / 15.87
Volatility estimator independent of input lengthStable
Monte Carlo memory bounded at maximum paths48 MB @ 50k
Lattice convergence to closed formEuropean put · S=K=100 · 30 DTE · σ=30% · q=2%
0.10% tolerance5010020040080016000.512%shipped: averaged 200/201 tree — 0.003%error vs Black-Scholeslattice steps (log scale)
A single lattice oscillates around the true price depending on where the strike falls between terminal nodes. Averaging adjacent depths cancels it: 0.003% at a nominal 200 steps, rather than paying for a 1,600-step tree to reach 0.015%.

These establish that the arithmetic is correct. They say nothing about whether any given trade is profitable, and are not offered as though they did.

Instrument Access

Founding cohort. Two tiers, one rate that doesn't move.

Founding rates below. They rise for members who join after the cohort closes; yours does not increase while your subscription stays active. That is not a marketing device — PayPal subscription plans are fixed price, so the figure you subscribe at is the figure that bills, permanently, on that plan.

Analyst
$119/mo
Founding rate · monthly · cancel any time
  • Institutional Market Scanner, full universe
  • Deep Dive with all six strike bases
  • Black-Scholes Greeks and CRR convergence panel
  • Monte Carlo to 10,000 paths
  • Six-source data waterfall with health reporting
Apex Ultimate
$199/mo
Founding rate · monthly · cancel any time
  • Everything in Analyst
  • Monte Carlo to 50,000 paths with Merton jump diffusion
  • GARCH(1,1) forecasting, walk-forward out of sample
  • Regime detection and sector strength
  • Custom watchlists and the APEX-100 universe
Contact

Ask before you subscribe.

Questions about methodology, data sources, what a tier includes, or billing — access@vrpquant.com. A person reads it.

What that address will not do is tell you whether to put on a specific trade. VRP Quant is a research tool, not an advisor, and answering individual position questions would make it something it is not registered to be. Ask how a number is computed and you will get a real answer. Ask whether to sell a particular put and you will get this paragraph back.

Before You Ask

Straight answers, including the ones that don't sell harder.

Does the verification report mean the signals make money?

No, and it is not offered as though it does. It proves the pricing mathematics is correct. Pricing an option right is a necessary condition for the tool to be worth anything and not a sufficient one. Anyone conflating the two is selling you something.

Is there a backtest with a return figure?

The terminal runs a walk-forward out-of-sample backtest and shows it inside the product with a hypothetical-performance disclaimer attached. Those numbers are not reproduced on this page, because a simulated result presented as marketing is a performance claim and this is a research tool, not a track record.

Where does the data come from?

Six sources in a defined waterfall. Free-tier limits are real and the terminal tells you when it hits one rather than silently substituting stale data. The sidebar reports which source served each request.

Can I verify the report myself?

Yes. It is generated by the test suite in the repository and run by GitHub Actions against the commit named in its header. The report names the engine version it certifies, and the terminal shows its version in the sidebar. Where the two agree, the software you are using is the software that was proven.

Will the founding rate go up later?

Not for you. PayPal subscription plans are fixed price, so the rate you subscribe at is the rate that bills for as long as the subscription stays active. New members joining after the cohort closes pay the standard rate. Cancel and rejoin later and you rejoin at whatever is current, so the lock holds only while the subscription runs uninterrupted.

Does it place trades?

No. There is no broker connection, no order routing and no execution of any kind. It is a research terminal. You take your own decisions to your own broker.